Halloween Candy Odds: What Kids Are Most (and Least) Likely to Get

You send your kid out in a $40 costume with a $3 plastic pumpkin, hoping they return with enough sugar to last through Thanksgiving. But what exactly are they bringing home? Here are their Halloween candy odds.

The stats nerds at the online gambling site The Action Network crunched numbers from DoorDash, Instacart, and other candy sources, and came up with Vegas-style odds on what will be landing in that bucket.

So, when your kid walks through the door with a pillowcase full of sugar, you’ll know the odds of finding what you’re looking for. Here’s what your little monster is most (and least) likely to drag home.

10 Candies with the Highest Odds

Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups – 67%

Practically a Halloween guarantee. If your kid doesn’t come back with at least one, did they even go out?

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Peanut M&M’s – 65%

Solid choice. Somehow feel healthier even though they’re not.

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M&M’s – 62%

The peanut-free classic ranks first in most likely to break open and be found loose in the bottom of the bag.

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Kit Kat – 60%

Break me off a piece of that Kit Kat bar and toss it directly into my face.

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Snickers – 58%

When your neighbors go full-size, it’s usually this. Respect.

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Sour Patch Kids – 55%

First they’re sour, then they’re gone. Kids trade for these like they’re currency.

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Hershey’s Milk Chocolate – 50%

The bar that started it all. Still holding strong.

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Milky Way – 45%

Like a Snickers without the crunch. The soft-spoken cousin.

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Twix – 33%

Whether you’re Left Twix or Right Twix, you’re still only getting one.

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Gummy Bears – 33%

Classic, chewy, and just the second non-chocolate candy on the list.

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Tricks in the Treats: The Low-Probability Oddballs

• Candy Corn – 23%: You either love it or hate it. There is no in between.
• Raisins – 4%: Someone out there still thinks this counts as a treat. It doesn’t.
• Toothbrush – 2%: There’s always one house, usually owned by a dentist with a guilt complex.

If you live in Mississippi, your kid has a 46% chance of getting candy corn. But kids in Hawaii can breathe easy, just an 11% chance.

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Happy Halloween! May the Reese’s odds be ever in your favor.